India’s Dual Pressure on Pakistan: Water Leverage and Military Might

India’s Dual Pressure on Pakistan: Water Leverage and Military Might

In South Asia, the India-Pakistan rivalry continues to be defined by territorial disputes, military buildups, and shifting alliances. However, beyond the visible tensions across the Line of Control (LoC), a quieter but equally potent strategy has emerged. India is exerting dual pressure on Pakistan—not only through military dominance but also via control over crucial transboundary water resources. This two-pronged approach is reshaping the power dynamics of the subcontinent, testing Pakistan’s resilience on both environmental and defense fronts.

Water as a Weapon: India’s Indus Advantage

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, is often hailed as a rare success in India-Pakistan diplomacy. It allocates the waters of the six-river Indus system, granting Pakistan rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) and India rights over the eastern ones (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej). However, India retains certain upstream privileges, including the right to limited irrigation and hydroelectric projects.

In recent years, New Delhi has increasingly explored these rights, accelerating dam construction in Jammu and Kashmir. “India is not violating the treaty, but it is pushing the limits of what is permissible,” said a senior water analyst in Islamabad. Projects like the Kishanganga and Ratle dams have sparked concerns in Pakistan about reduced water flow, especially during the critical rabi season.

For an agriculture-dependent economy like Pakistan’s—where over 90% of freshwater usage goes to farming—these fears are not unfounded. “Even a temporary drop in river flow can devastate crop cycles in Punjab,” noted an irrigation expert in Lahore.

The strategic use of water control places India in a position of power without firing a single shot. In times of heightened political tension, Indian leaders have occasionally hinted at using water as leverage. In 2016, after the Uri attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared: “Blood and water cannot flow together,” signaling a possible rethink of water cooperation with Pakistan.

Growing Military Disparity: A Challenge for Islamabad

While water serves as a subtle instrument of influence, military power remains the overt and undeniable pillar of India’s strategy. Over the past decade, India has significantly ramped up defense spending, modernizing its army, navy, and air force. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India ranked as the world’s third-largest military spender in 2024, well ahead of Pakistan.

Pakistan, facing economic constraints and inflationary pressures, struggles to keep pace. Its military doctrine continues to rely on tactical nuclear weapons and guerrilla-style asymmetrical warfare. Meanwhile, India has expanded its capabilities in cyber warfare, missile defense, and surveillance—areas where Pakistan has limited reach.

Joint military drills with global powers like the United States, France, and Israel further strengthen India’s strategic positioning. “India’s growing defense partnerships are isolating Pakistan diplomatically and limiting its room to maneuver,” said a former Indian Army officer.

Notably, India’s military posture has shifted from a defensive strategy to a doctrine of “proactive operations,” often referred to as Cold Start. This aims at swift and limited strikes inside Pakistan without triggering full-scale war—an unnerving scenario for Pakistani planners.

Diplomatic Isolation and Strategic Encirclement

India’s regional diplomacy also contributes to Pakistan’s geopolitical squeeze. Through investments in Afghanistan’s infrastructure (prior to the Taliban takeover) and deepening ties with Iran and Gulf states, New Delhi has worked to limit Islamabad’s influence in neighboring territories.

Moreover, India’s Act East policy and the Quad alliance (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia) are enabling it to project power beyond the subcontinent. In contrast, Pakistan’s foreign policy has become increasingly reliant on China, leading to concerns of over-dependence on Beijing and a narrowing global support base.

India’s military infrastructure buildup near the Pakistan border—roads, airstrips, and communication networks—serves both strategic and psychological purposes. “This isn’t just a show of force; it’s a show of readiness,” remarked a senior defense analyst in New Delhi.

The Domestic Dimension: Public Opinion and Political Pressure

In both countries, domestic politics fuel the pressure game. In India, strong nationalist sentiments often translate into calls for tougher stances against Pakistan. Political leaders, especially in election cycles, tend to amplify cross-border issues for domestic gains.

In Pakistan, the civilian government faces a dual challenge—addressing internal economic turmoil while responding to Indian pressure without risking all-out conflict. “We are stretched thin,” admitted a retired Pakistani diplomat, “but strategic restraint is not always an option when the public demands retaliation.”

Conclusion: A Tense Balancing Act

India’s dual strategy—military buildup and strategic water use—represents a calculated form of pressure that tests Pakistan’s flexibility and long-term security planning. While both countries have nuclear deterrents that reduce the likelihood of full-scale war, these indirect levers of influence are creating sustained instability.

For policymakers, the question is not whether this pressure exists, but how it will evolve. As climate change threatens to exacerbate water scarcity and military technology becomes more precise, the balance of power in South Asia may continue to tilt. The challenge lies in managing these tensions through diplomacy, rather than brinkmanship.

If the region hopes to avoid escalation, dialogue and treaty re-evaluations must return to the forefront. As it stands, Pakistan is navigating a narrow path between drought and deterrence—an uneasy journey shaped by India’s calculated power projection.

Keywords:

India Pakistan tension, Indus Waters Treaty, India military power, water as a weapon, South Asia geopolitics, Indo-Pak rivalry, Pakistan water crisis, India-Pakistan military balance, Kishanganga dam, Cold Start Doctrine, Pakistan strategic pressure

Sources:

• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
• Indus Waters Treaty text and dispute updates
• Public statements from Indian and Pakistani officials
• Analysis from Indian Army and Pakistani diplomatic experts